Thursday, June 30, 2005

Virtual cosmetics and hyperreal imagery

A correspondent recently pointed me to Collision Detection, blog of technology writer Clive Thompson. Many pointers to intriguing research, but I want to comment on Thompson's thoughts on the strange hyperreality of HDTV:

To understand why high-def is so unforgiving, consider the numbers. Today's new top-of-the-line HD televisions can display two million pixels, nearly 10 times the resolution of a regular, old-style TV set. Also, the screens are the size of a tabletop. Watching a show in high definition is thus rather like being Gulliver in the land of Brobdingnag -- where every pore on the giants' faces looms like a shell-blasted crater. Many new HDTV owners have tuned in to high-definition celebrity events, only to discover that their favorite stars suddenly look downright haggard.

. . .

"It's almost too realistic, too digital and computery," complains Alexis Vogel, a veteran celebrity makeup artist who recently worked on "Stacked," a high-def show starring Pamela Anderson. "We'd all like to go back to the old days." Makeup artists are now engaged in an arms race with the new medium. But they face a paradox: while makeup is more necessary than ever, its artifice is more obvious. You can't slather on powder when every grain looks like a boulder on your client's face. And interestingly, many cosmeticians predict that high-def could actually reduce the amount of plastic surgery in Hollywood, because the tiny seams look Frankensteinian at such high resolution. High-def is, in essence, a medium peculiarly unsuited to dissembling. "It's harder to change people from their natural form," Vogel adds.

This will probably put an ever-higher premium on genuinely natural beauty -- those lucky few people who require virtually no touch-up. Indeed, high-def fans say that some stars look better in the new medium: Anna Kournikova, George Clooney and Catherine Zeta-Jones glow like supernovas, and, Vogel says, "in high-def, Halle Berry's skin is so beautiful and flawless, she's almost a genetic freak."

Maybe. But I believe that humans' capacity for deception surpasses their capacity for sniffing out authenticity, not least because people want to be deceived.

Traditional cosmetics may be inadequate, but there's no reason cosmetics have to be applied to the face, rather than the image of the face. I'm reminded of a rumor I heard, some years ago, that for one of Meg Ryan's later movies, the studio paid a claque of Photoshop monkeys to digitally retouch each individual frame in which her face had appeared. Now, in hi-def, retouching will be more than a matter of blasting people's faces with the clone tool; but there's no reason that retouching has to be done so crudely or so manually. Some future SIGGRAPH proceedings will carry a paper titled (roughly) "Photorealistic real-time cosmetic enhancement of human skin textures", and it will describe how to generate skin with realistic pores, hairs, and a healthy translucent "glow" under a variety of lighting conditions.

Now, this use of virtual cosmetics will merely preserve, approximately, the status quo in our relationship with media images; in a way, it's boring. But the real revolution comes when computational cosmetics becomes commoditized, and built into every digital camera and camcorder. You could, if you wanted, look absolutely fabulous, baby, in every single digitally captured image of yourself. The old fogeys --- i.e., us --- might recoil in horror at the inauthenticity, but kids would undoubtedly embrace it. Everybody could look like a movie star, but only in pictures. Whereas teenagers today grow up yearning to possess the flawless bodies and faces of celebrities, teenagers in this future might grow up yearning to possess the flawless bodies and faces of their own digitally projected selves.

One is tempted to think that this mediated narcissism would be wholly novel, and certainly the phenomenon's sheer scale would be; but in a sense we will only have come full circle in the history of visual representations of people. Because, of course, before the camera's dispassionate warts-and-all gaze became the typical mode of portraiture, all images were mediated by the eyes and hands of portrait artists, who inevitably would idealize the subject (often at his or her request).

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

More on dying in Iraq and the US Army

Following up my recent post on surviving a tour of duty in Iraq, some recent related links:

  • Lies.com's jbc on the gradual upward trend of US deaths in Iraq since March 2003.
  • BruceR: On the relatively small fraction (by historical standards) of fatalities suffered by officers vs. enlisted men in Iraq, and some possible implications.
  • Lucian K. Truscott IV: On the nosedive in junior officer morale, and possible long-term effects on the Army.
  • Digby: On chickenhawkery more generally.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

The Mole

He pressed his index finger to her mole.

"There," he said.

She looked down. "What are you doing?"

"Memorizing your identifying marks."

"Why?"

"So I'll be able to tell if they take you away and switch you with somebody else."

She paused. "That's such a you thing to say. Who are they?"

"I don't know. People or entities beyond my understanding."

Years later, while having dinner with his friends, the conversation briefly turned to a movie that, he recalled, he'd first seen with her. He didn't think much of it, and the conversation rapidly drifted elsewhere.

But on the drive home, his thoughts spiraled back to her, and it occurred to him that he didn't remember where the mole was, and he didn't care that he'd forgotten; and therefore the man he'd become was a stranger to the man he'd once been, however much the two men resembled each other. He found the consequent irony almost, but not entirely, too obvious to mark in his mind: in the end, he'd been the one stolen --- from himself --- and switched with somebody else.

Monday, June 27, 2005

SCOTUS kills Grokster

BoingBoing has the most complete link rundown so far. My initial reaction was: "OK, now I know for certain that the Supreme Court is a bunch of hacks whose judgment gets warped by proximity to monied interests." However, the full picture, as Copyfight points out, may be more nuanced than that. I'll reserve judgment till I see how the legal community reacts.


UPDATE(S) (28 June): More links...

Sunday, June 26, 2005

Surviving a tour of duty

Josh Marshall and Atrios are both suggesting that young, healthy conservatives who support the war ought to enlist. Marshall's quotes ("Frankly, I want to be a politician. I'd like to survive to see that.") are especially damning.

So, this prompted me to wonder: how big a gamble, exactly, does a person run by enlisting in the military today?

Well, there are about 170,000 US troops deployed in southwest Asia; this includes those in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as supporting forces elsewhere in the region. There have been about 1,738 deaths and 13,074 injuries since the Iraqi invasion. One might be tempted, naïvely, to conclude that there's about 1% probability of death and 10% probability of injury, but that's not right, because in the 28 months since the March 2003 invasion far more than 170,000 troops have been rotated through Iraq and Afghanistan. Salon's Mark Benjamin reports that "well over 1 million US troops" have gone to war since the initial invasion of Afghanistan. The DoD's casualty reports for Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom) and Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom) yield 1,854 deaths and 13,337 wounded. So, naïvely, we obtain 1,854 / 1,000,000 = 0.001854, or about a 0.2% chance of dying.

But that assumes that the probability of death has been constant since the invasion of Afghanistan, which probably isn't the case. Peacekeeping operations in Iraq today, for example, probably have a different casualty rate than the initial invasion of Afghanistan. So, to obtain a better estimate, I use this page's claim that the average tour of duty in Iraq, to date, has been about 320 days, or about 10.5 months. Then I sum the monthly casualty data for the past 12 months (I assume the past year most closely resembles the expected casualty rate over the next year), yielding a total of 876 deaths, or 73 deaths per month. Dividing by the 170,000 serving in southwest Asia in any given month, your probability of dying in any given month will be 0.000429, which means your chance of survival will be 0.99957; raising this to the 10.5 power yields a tour-of-duty probability of survival of 0.9955, yielding a probability of dying over a tour of duty in southwest Asia of: 0.45%.

Of course, this is a pretty crude estimate. If you're an infantryman in Mosul, then your probability of dying will be higher; if you're stationed in Kuwait, then it will be much, much lower. Those who enlist now will probably be sent somewhere in Iraq, where people are most desperately needed. Still, 170,000 troops is a lot, and your probability of being one of the roughly eight hundred who will die during your tour of duty is pretty small.

Now, given the awfulness of the potential outcome, this probability is nothing to shake a stick at, but we should be clear that those who support the Iraq War, but refuse to enlist, are not fleeing from a certain or even likely death sentence. They are fleeing from a combination of hardship and calculated gamble which they have no problem inflicting on others. For the overwhelming majority of US personnel in the Global War on Terror (as the DoD calls it), service to the country consists of a couple years of hard duty and sacrifice, no more --- after which they go back to serving their careers, families, and communities again. I'm not sure whether this makes chickenhawks more hypocritical or less, but there you have it.